The Box Office Just Experienced Its Worst Memorial Day In Decades – What Happened?

To say that this Memorial Day weekend was a disappointment at the box office would be a grave understatement. Warner Bros. unleashed director George Miller's "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" in theaters, while Sony Pictures released the family-friendly "The Garfield Movie." On paper, we had a much-anticipated (or so we thought) prequel to "Mad Max: Fury Road," which is one of the most beloved action movies of all time, as well as an animated movie that could get parents out of the house with their kids. In practice, we endured a truly sobering several days' worth of lousy ticket sales.

"Furiosa" topped the charts with a $26.3 million haul through Sunday, with that number growing to $32 million when accounting for the Monday holiday. "Garfield" came in a close second with $24 million over the weekend and $31.1 million through Monday. Both of those numbers were well below industry projections, with "Furiosa" failing (by a wide margin) to match the $45.4 million opening of "Fury Road" back in 2015. All told, the domestic box office totaled just over $101 million for the full weekend. That is particularly brutal when we remember that last year, Disney's "The Little Mermaid" remake opened to $95.4 million by itself on this same weekend, with the film pulling in $117.5 million when the Monday grosses were added in.

It all adds up to the worst Memorial Day weekend the industry has seen in nearly 30 years. Save for 2020 when theaters around the country were closed due to the pandemic, it's the worst opening since "Casper" topped the charts with $22.5 million back in 1995. (Adjusted for inflation, "Casper" would have made around $46 million in today's dollars, making things even more grim by comparison.)

So, what the hell went so wrong? Why couldn't Miller's return to the "Mad Max" franchise and a family-friendly take on "Garfield" help to course correct an already brutal summer movie season at the box office? It's a complicated, multi-layered question, but here's our answer.

For starters, last year's SAG and WGA strikes can't be ignored here. The studios allowed those strikes to drag on for months, which completely disrupted the 2024 release calendar. In a less grim world, "Deadpool & Wolverine" was originally going to open in early May before being delayed. Had that happened, things would probably look very different right now, overall. That wouldn't explain why audiences didn't show up for the well-liked "Furiosa," but it would have at least helped to fill more theaters around the country.

Circling back to the issue at hand, it appears that all of the love "Fury Road" has garnered over the last nine years didn't amount to much in terms of motivating general moviegoers to see the long-awaited prequel. Yes, some critics were pretty hard on "Furiosa," but those who loved it really loved it. The response has been generally positive. Much like "The Fall Guy," word of mouth seemingly can't be relied on to get audiences in theaters, even if the word is very good.

"Garfield" is a slightly different case. It was not particularly well-reviewed, but at the same time, that isn't always a death knell for a family film. Be that as it may, even Chris Pratt couldn't seem to motivate the masses here. This didn't capture that same "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" magic — not by a long shot.

This whole Garfuriosa weekend, in theory, could have been one heck of a double bill, much like "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" were last summer. Both cases featured two movies aiming for different audiences that seemingly had a lot in the plus column. Unfortunately, Warner Bros. and Sony couldn't sell audiences on the Garfuriosa thing. They couldn't turn either movie into a must-see event, and that increasingly seems to be the only way to produce a breakout hit in the pandemic era.

The movies that have been most successful since theaters opened up again in 2021 have largely been events. "Godzilla vs. Kong" and this year's "Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire" benefited by being entries in a franchise that hasn't overextended itself. "Top Gun: Maverick" was the perfect blend of nostalgia, unexpected quality, and pure star power. "Spider-Man: No Way Home" successfully created an "Avengers: Endgame"-level event for Spider-Man fans. "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" became a once-in-a-lifetime cultural event that the internet latched onto. "Five Nights at Freddy's" gave Gen Z a blockbuster to call its own. These were all events.

"Furiosa" didn't have the same stars as "Fury Road," and much has changed in the last nine years. Maybe it ran into the same issues that kneecapped movies like "Solo: A Star Wars Story" and Pixar's "Lightyear." I've generally hated the "nobody asked for this movie" argument, but in the pandemic era, that argument seems to hold water. For something to be successful, it kind of seems like someone needs to be asking for the movie for it to succeed. (There are going to be exceptions to every rule, of course.)

To that end, "Garfield" isn't nearly as relevant as a franchise as it once was and that brand is not a fraction as powerful as "Mario." Were any kids truly clamoring to see this film? Were parents nostalgic enough for the lasagna-eating cat to drag their kids to it? Some were, sure, but not enough to make it a breakout hit. Sony only spent $60 million on the movie and it's doing great business overseas, so it'll be fine in the end individually. Broadly though, it's not helping theaters very much and it leaves studios holding the bag, wondering how to proceed in the future. IP for the sake of IP simply isn't cutting it anymore.

What we're seeing is a broad change in consumer habits at play. Moviegoing was already becoming something many people did less frequently before the pandemic. Once that happened, once theaters closed for an entire year and more movies started coming to VOD right away, the habit of staying home accelerated. Between that and the proliferation of streaming, coupled with the sheer expense of going to a theater, we're seeing audiences increasingly turning their backs on moviegoing as something high up on the list of things to do on an average weekend.

So sure, maybe in 2019, "Furiosa" would have been a bigger hit. Not now. Heck, even in 2021, "A Quiet Place: Part II" opened to $57 million while "Cruella" pulled in $26.5 million while being simultaneously available on VOD. Things are changing rapidly. My big takeaway is that all sides of the industry — from the studios in Hollywood to the people in charge at every major theater chain — need to come together and start addressing the problems right now. Yesterday would have been nice, but today will have to do.

Maybe it comes down to lowering ticket prices, as Sony's Tom Rothman has suggested. Maybe it comes down to improving the average movie theater auditorium. It almost certainly involves exercising patience before bringing a big movie to VOD, as the industry needs to invest in rebuilding the habit of more generalized moviegoing again. All of these things, coupled with a sparse 2024 release calendar, created a doomsday scenario over Memorial Day. Here's hoping 2025 offers greener pastures.

I spoke more about this on today's episode of the /Film Daily podcast, which you can listen to below:

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